Preseason Rankings
Ball St.
Mid-American
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.9#130
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.2#200
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#206
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#87
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.8% 17.0% 9.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.3% 2.1% 0.6%
Average Seed 12.6 12.3 13.2
.500 or above 66.4% 79.5% 54.6%
.500 or above in Conference 68.3% 76.8% 60.7%
Conference Champion 14.1% 18.8% 9.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 2.6% 6.3%
First Four0.8% 1.1% 0.5%
First Round12.4% 16.3% 8.8%
Second Round2.5% 3.6% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.1% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Kentucky (Away) - 47.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 37 - 68 - 11
Quad 48 - 216 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 167   @ Northern Kentucky L 66-67 47%    
  Nov 27, 2020 229   Southern Miss W 70-64 72%    
  Nov 29, 2020 272   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-66 78%    
  Dec 02, 2020 19   @ Michigan L 63-78 8%    
  Dec 05, 2020 216   Illinois-Chicago W 73-64 79%    
  Dec 11, 2020 188   Illinois St. W 72-65 73%    
  Dec 19, 2020 122   @ Indiana St. L 67-71 36%    
  Dec 29, 2020 189   @ Northern Illinois W 66-65 53%    
  Jan 02, 2021 134   Ohio W 71-68 62%    
  Jan 05, 2021 238   Western Michigan W 73-63 80%    
  Jan 09, 2021 116   @ Buffalo L 74-79 35%    
  Jan 12, 2021 146   @ Bowling Green L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 16, 2021 189   Northern Illinois W 69-62 72%    
  Jan 19, 2021 179   @ Miami (OH) L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 23, 2021 134   @ Ohio L 68-71 41%    
  Jan 26, 2021 172   Kent St. W 74-68 68%    
  Jan 30, 2021 126   @ Akron L 69-72 38%    
  Feb 02, 2021 116   Buffalo W 77-76 55%    
  Feb 06, 2021 137   Toledo W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 09, 2021 207   @ Central Michigan W 78-76 56%    
  Feb 13, 2021 160   @ Eastern Michigan L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 16, 2021 146   Bowling Green W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 20, 2021 126   Akron W 72-69 58%    
  Feb 23, 2021 238   @ Western Michigan W 70-66 62%    
  Feb 27, 2021 207   Central Michigan W 81-73 74%    
  Mar 02, 2021 160   Eastern Michigan W 68-63 66%    
  Mar 05, 2021 137   @ Toledo L 69-72 41%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.0 3.4 3.1 2.0 0.9 0.2 14.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.9 3.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 12.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.5 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.2 2.5 0.4 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.2 1.2 3.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.9 4.1 5.7 6.9 8.7 9.7 10.3 10.4 10.2 8.5 7.4 5.2 3.6 2.1 0.9 0.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9
18-2 96.2% 2.0    1.8 0.1
17-3 87.0% 3.1    2.5 0.7 0.0
16-4 65.4% 3.4    2.1 1.1 0.1
15-5 40.8% 3.0    1.4 1.2 0.4 0.1
14-6 14.4% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.1% 14.1 9.2 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 91.9% 57.9% 34.0% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.8%
19-1 0.9% 79.6% 60.8% 18.8% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 47.9%
18-2 2.1% 61.7% 42.0% 19.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 34.0%
17-3 3.6% 44.3% 36.8% 7.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.0 11.9%
16-4 5.2% 34.2% 31.7% 2.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 3.4 3.7%
15-5 7.4% 27.4% 26.4% 1.0% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.3 1.3%
14-6 8.5% 20.3% 20.1% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 6.7 0.2%
13-7 10.2% 12.4% 12.4% 13.9 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 8.9
12-8 10.4% 9.7% 9.7% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 9.4
11-9 10.3% 5.6% 5.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 9.7
10-10 9.7% 3.5% 3.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.3
9-11 8.7% 2.0% 2.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.5
8-12 6.9% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.8
7-13 5.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 5.7
6-14 4.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.1
5-15 2.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.9
4-16 1.7% 1.7
3-17 1.0% 1.0
2-18 0.4% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.8% 11.7% 1.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.4 3.5 2.3 1.6 0.5 87.2 1.3%